Tehachapi, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

987
FXUS66 KHNX 181836
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1136 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Cooler Juneteenth and Saturday temperatures until warming
temperatures start again on Sunday. Triple-digit heat expected
by next Tuesday.

2. Hot and dry conditions next week will create increased fire
risk across the region.

3. 20-25% probability for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada,
including isolated risk for dry lightning.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water
is still running cold.

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.DISCUSSION...
While warm and dry weather is likely to continue for a while, a
small cooling trend is expected to start tomorrow and last
through Saturday. High temperatures will hover around 90
degrees across the high desert, San Joaquin and Kern River
valleys by Saturday as the ridge currently aloft breaks down and
gives way to a weak trough. Minimum relative humidity across
the San Joaquin Valley is expected to slightly improve to 25-35%
as the troughing moves through the region.

Unfortunately, minimum RH will remain at 10-15% across the
Mojave Desert before even dryer air settles into all of Central
California as temperatures increase next week. Latest models
indicate triple-digit heat returns to the Mojave Desert by next
Monday and the San Joaquin Valley next Tuesday. Combined with
minimum RH falling to as low as 15-20% and 5-10% respectively,
both widespread moderate heat risk and elevated fire risk are
expected to return (once again) by the start of the next work
week.

Troughing crossing over our area will also encourage afternoon
thunderstorm development along the Sierra Nevada crest today and
on Juneteenth. Latest probabilistic forecasting indicates a
20-25% probability for thunderstorms, including a 10% chance for
isolated dry lightning around Yosemite and Sequoia National
Parks. This carries with it an increased fire risk for the
Sierra Nevada mountains.

Above normal temperatures are likely to continue; the Climate
Prediction Center has the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks
in the likely above normal temperature category.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
20-25% probability for afternoon thunderstorms across the
Sierra Crest today and on Juneteenth.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ300.
&&

$$

public/aviation...ND

weather.gov/hanford